Victorian election 2022

Relieved pollsters are celebrating the re-election of the Andrews government, which all major companies predicted with varying degrees of accuracy.

The latest count on Sunday evening showed the government had won 37 per cent of the primary vote with 68.3 per cent of votes counted, marking a 3.5 per cent swing towards the Coalition that had not translated into many extra seats.

A survey for The Age by Resolve Strategic, published on November 22 and collected in the days prior, predicted Labor was on track to win 36.2 per cent of the primary vote, with the Coalition, Greens and Independents on 35.8, 10.1 and 17.9 per cent respectively.

With almost 70 per cent of the vote counted on Sunday evening, ABC election analysis calculated a primary vote of 37 per cent for Labor, 35.1 per cent for the Coalition, 10.9 per cent for The Greens and 17 per cent for independents and other parties.

A News Poll, published in The Australian on Saturday, predicted the Andrews government would retain between 45 and 50 seats and win 38 per cent of the primary vote.

The stability in the polls at the weekend’s election stood in contrast to the 2019 federal election when many pollsters failed to predict former Liberal prime minister Scott Morrison would snatch victory despite expectations the Coalition could not win.

Resolve founder Jim Reed said the results would shift in coming days because counting of pre-poll and postal votes would probably skew towards the Coalition.

Reed said the polls largely “got it right” on vote share but should have placed more emphasis on the swing away from Labor in seats in the western suburbs that it held by large margins.

“We did identify a larger swing in the western suburbs in our polling, but didn’t make enough of the effect that would have on restricting the seats the Liberals could win,” he said.

Two days before the election the Herald Sun reported two scenarios based on a Redbridge Group poll — that Labor would win 43 seats, just short of a majority or the more positive scenario for the government of winning 48 seats.

The government was predicted to win 52 seats as of Sunday night.

Premier Daniel Andrews with wife Catherine and children Noah (left), Grace and Joseph on Saturday night.Credit:Joe Armao

Predictions of a surge in the independent vote did not translate into a wave of extra seats. Three country independents were likely to lose their seats to Nationals candidates.

Monash University politics senior lecturer Zareh Ghazarian said the polls had consistently found that Labor would win the election.

“They were indicating that really throughout the pandemic that Labor remained popular,” he said. “Overall the trend was pretty much what happened: voters weren’t really frustrated with the Labor government in big numbers.”

He said the consistency in the polls should encourage confidence in their methodologies.

Opposition leader Mathew Guy conceding defeat on Saturday night. Credit:Jason South

Unlike the official opinion polls, internal party research often briefed out to media proved far less accurate. Internal Liberal research showed the opposition was polling well in several key seats; a prediction that proved fanciful on Saturday night.

Labor sources had also told reporters during the campaign they feared frustration with Andrews over the state’s prolonged lockdowns could cause them serious damage in the outer suburbs.

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