Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie

Weekly Commentary (Updated: Aug. 17, 2023): In the biographical comedy film, Daniel Radcliffe plays the brilliant role of parody musician Al Yankovic, diving headfirst into the eccentric world of the satirical songwriter. He effortlessly channels Yankovic’s signature humor in the Roku Channel movie, bringing to life the musician’s iconic wit and comedic genius. Watch out for him to take it home, especially with the movie’s eight impressive noms.

Steven Yeun’s nominated work as Danny, a struggling contractor who seeks revenge, is intense and revelatory in the Netflix dark series. Alongside Ali Wong, he finds the balance between entertainment and demanding attention from the viewer. As one of two series that has nominations in every significant acting category (the other being “Succession”), it could pull a sweep, similar to “The Crown” and “Schitt’s Creek” that some may not see coming.

In the biographical Showtime miniseries, Michael Shannon flawlessly embodies the essence of George Jones, capturing the complexity of the iconic singer’s tumultuous life and career alongside Jessica Chastain as Tammy Wynette. His haunting, poignant performance allows viewers to find love with Jones, making a respectable tribute to a country music legend.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

Taron Egerton plays Sam, a young man struggling who receives a chance at redemption while serving a prison sentence in the Apple TV crime series. Proving to be a chameleon-like actor after transformations like Elton John in “Rocket Man” and earlier this year as the inventor of “Tetris,” this role could be a packaged deal with his front-running co-star Paul Walter Hauser.

In the biographical drama, Kumail Nanjiani takes on the challenging role of Steve Banerjee, the co-founder of the iconic male strip club, which brought him a surprise acting nom. He seamlessly sheds his familiar comedic persona to portray a character with darker motivations and a troubled past. The first of many to come in the actor’s already impressive career.

The rankings for the category are below.

The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST. The 75th Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, January 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. The Creative Arts ceremony will occur on Saturday, January 6, and Sunday, January 7. An edited version will air on FXX on Saturday, January 13, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET. All events will take place at the Peacock Theater at LA Live.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

And the Nominees Are:

1. Evan Peters — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
2. Steven Yeun — “Beef” (Netflix)
3. Daniel Radcliffe — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
4. Michael Shannon — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)
5. Taron Egerton — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
6. Kumail Nanjiani — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

• Josh Groban — “Beauty and the Beast: A 30th Celebration” (ABC)
• Ben Whishaw — “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC)
• Taron Egerton — “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
• Billy Crystal — “Mr. Saturday Night: A New Musical Comedy” (BroadwayHD)
• Patrick Dempsey — “Disenchanted” (Disney+)
• Tom Hanks — “Disney’s Pinocchio” (Disney+)
• Ewan McGregor — “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
• Jesse Eisenberg — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
• Andy Garcia — “Father of the Bride” (HBO)
• Woody Harrelson — “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
• Joel Kim Booster — “Fire Island” (Hulu)
• Fionn Whitehead — “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
• Trevante Rhodes — “Mike” (Hulu)
• Steve Carell — “The Patient” (Hulu)
• Kumail Nanjiani — “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
• Alexander Skarsgård — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
• Jamie Demetriou — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
• Trystan Gravelle — “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
• Damian Lewis — “A Spy Among Friends” (MGM+)
• Guy Pearce — “A Spy Among Friends” (MGM+)
• Joe Cole — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
• Steven Yeun — “Beef” (Netflix)
• F. Murray Abraham — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• Ben Barnes — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• Crispin Glover — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• Rupert Grint — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• David Hewlett — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• Andrew Lincoln — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• Tim Blake Nelson — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• Peter Weller — “Cabinet of Curiosities” (Netflix)
• Evan Peters — “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
• Rob Lowe — “Dog Gone” (Netflix)
• Eugenio Mastrandrea — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
• Giancarlo Esposito – “Kaleidoscope” (Netflix)
• Alexander Dreymon — “Last Kingdom: Seven Kings Must Die” (Netflix)
• Justin Hartley — “The Noel Diary” (Netflix)
• Bobby Cannavale — “The Watcher” (Netflix)
• Laurence O’Fuarain — “The Witcher: Blood Origin” (Netflix)
• Gaten Matarazzo — “Honor Society” (Paramount+)
• Bryan Cranston — “Jerry and Marge Go Large” (Paramount+)
• Thomas Lennon — “Reno 911: It’s a Wonderful Heist” (Paramount+)
• Tyler Posey — “Teen Wolf: The Movie” (Paramount+)
• Solly McLeod — “Tom Jones: Masterpiece” (PBS)
• Colin Hanks — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
• Jake Lacy — “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
• Matthew Fox — “Last Light” (Peacock)
• Pete Davidson — “Meet Cute” (Peacock)
• Sam Claflin — “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Prime Video)
• Chaske Spencer — “The English” (Prime Video)
• Ben Platt — “The People We Hate at the Wedding” (Prime Video)
• Sylvester Stallone — “Samaritan” (Prime Video)
• Josh Duhamel — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
• Jay Ellis — “Somebody I Used to Know” (Prime Video)
• Kendrick Sampson — “Something from Tiffany’s” (Prime Video)
• Daniel Radcliffe — “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
• Michael Shannon — “George & Tammy” (Showtime)

** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” (Hulu)

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

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