NHS waiting lists will surpass 8million by next summer, analysis shows.

The number of people waiting for routine surgeries in England will continue to rise even if strike action is stopped now, according to the Health Foundation report.

Rishi Sunak pledged to tackle climbing waiting lists as one of his five key priorities in January this year, but numbers hit a record 7.75million in August.

Charles Tallack, of the Health Foundation, said: “Behind these numbers are people anxious for a diagnosis, patients in avoidable pain and lives put on hold.

“While industrial action has a range of impacts on NHS organisations, the strikes have only directly resulted in a small increase in the size of the overall waiting list.

“Eliminating the backlog for elective care and returning waiting times to 18 weeks is entirely possible — it was done in the early 2000s and it can be done again.” 

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Medics have been on strike for the equivalent of an entire working month this year, with more than a million appointments cancelled.

The Government is currently in talks with both junior doctors and consultants in an effort to prevent further walkouts.

The Health Foundation analysis suggests if no agreement is made and medics continue to down tools, a further 180,000 people will be waiting come next summer.

Strikes by junior doctors and consultants have so far increased the list by around 210,000, the report shows — although it does not give a figure for the other NHS strikes.

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Wes Streeting, Labour’s shadow health secretary, said: “This makes clear that NHS waiting lists would be the highest in history today even without industrial action.”

Saffron Cordery, of NHS Providers, said: "This report will fuel trust leaders’ concerns that the record-high waiting list will keep growing before it comes down.

“The projected increase alongside the rising financial impact of industrial action underscores the urgency of resolving the strikes.

“While strikes are not the leading cause of longer waits, the report confirms they exacerbate the issue by swallowing up NHS resources that could be better spent on cutting care backlogs."

The NHS would have to increase how many completed treatments it makes by more than 10 per cent a year for the list to drop to where it was this January, according to the report.

Doctors called on the Government to invest in surgical hubs in areas with the longest waits and improve staff morale to tackle the issue.

Tim Mitchell, of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: “Continuing to invest in surgical hubs across the country would allow surgeons to operate more efficiently.

“Providing a supportive, well-resourced working environment is vital to reducing burnout. 

“Otherwise, the NHS risks being caught in a revolving door, as we continuously lose the very staff we are trying to hire.”

An NHS spokesperson said: “Thanks to the hard work of NHS staff more patients are being treated than before the pandemic — 87,000 more in August than the same month in 2019.

“The analysis itself acknowledges that the impact of strikes is significantly underestimated and NHS staff and patients won’t agree that the impact has been small.

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“There has continued to be important progress in bringing down the longest waits — two-year waits have been virtually eliminated.

“The NHS is seeing high levels of demand, with more people coming forwarding for the care they need and referrals increasing at an even higher rate than before the pandemic.”

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