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Australians have increased their support for curbing the cost of the National Disability Insurance Scheme as state leaders rail against Canberra over its plan to save $72 billion over a decade.

After months of dispute over how to bring the scheme’s costs under control, 43 per cent of voters have backed federal Labor’s spending target, up from 37 per cent in May.

The spending target is essential to federal Labor’s ambition to bring budget deficits under control.Credit: Shutterstock

The exclusive findings intensify the debate over the contentious policy, which aims to limit spending growth to 8 per cent a year over the decade, as premiers warn against changes that require state school and health systems to offer greater help to those in need.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet the premiers and chief ministers at national cabinet on Wednesday in a bid to agree on more state services for people who need support but do not qualify for the NDIS in areas such as mental health and autism.

With the premiers warning against new costs on their state budgets, Albanese is poised to sweeten a potential deal by offering more hospital funding as well as greater certainty over the GST to ensure no state is worse off until a review is done in 2026.

Senior federal sources said a deal was possible on health, the NDIS and the GST at the meeting in Canberra, although the NDIS target would remain in the budget regardless of this week’s outcome.

Government Services Minister Bill Shorten unveiled the spending target in April and gained state support soon afterwards, but has been fielding complaints from state ministers in meetings over the past few days to agree on practical measures to achieve the savings.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been in talks with his counterparts to offer certainty over the GST in the next few years but has been adamant about the need to change a top-up deal struck in 2018 that was meant to cost $6.7 billion over eight years but is tipped to cost $33.9 billion instead.

“It would be good if we could come to some kind of understanding but if we can’t, we can’t,” Chalmers said on Monday.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, found that support for the 8 per cent NDIS target was slightly stronger among voters in marginal seats, with 45 per cent in favour.

While 53 per cent of Coalition voters backed the target, this fell to 45 per cent among Labor voters and 32 per cent among all other voters.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the rising cost of living was a factor in the shift in thinking in the electorate on the cost of the NDIS.

“While there is undoubtedly empathy for those who need to access the NDIS, people are also conscious that this, health and aged care spending could grow exponentially unless checks are put in place,” he said.

“In tough times, everyone needs to limit their demands and spending, and that applies here, too. Logically, to maximise the benefits, most either want the limited spending prioritised to those that need it most, or a cap put on each individual.”

The spending target is essential to federal Labor’s ambition to bring budget deficits under control because the goal would keep cost increases to $1.9 billion over the next four years compared to a forecast of $17.2 billion without any change.

A further $57 billion would be saved over the subsequent six years to produce a total saving of $72 billion over the decade.

Shorten has assured participants there is no plan to move them off the NDIS because the savings are expected to come from stamping out waste, clarifying who is entitled to join the scheme and setting stronger tests for the therapies that deserve funding. This means the number of people on the scheme will continue to grow.

The May budget included $732.9 million over four years to improve federal support and enable the longer-term savings.

The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1605 people from November 29 to December 3, producing results with a margin of error of 2.4 per cent. It asked: “In the May 2023 budget, the federal government announced that it would limit growth in spending on the NDIS to 8 per cent per year as spending was predicted to quickly rise above this. Do you support or oppose keeping to this policy of restricting increases in spending on the NDIS?”

When asked about ways to limit spending, 26 per cent of voters said the government should allow the NDIS to grow with demand, regardless of its cost.

Another 38 per cent favoured the idea of putting restrictions on who was offered support from the scheme, making this the most preferred option.

The survey found 18 per cent were in favour of putting a cap on the amount of money paid to each participant, while another 18 per cent were undecided.

Federal assistance to people with disabilities rose from $61 billion in the 2022 financial year to $69.4 billion the following year and is forecast to rise to $78.3 billion this year.

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