The crushing temperatures of recent days would be ‘virtually impossible’ in this country without climate change, experts have said.
As the mercury rises above 40°C for the first time in British history, scientists say the writing’s on the wall.
London Heathrow became the first place in the UK to ever record a temperature above 40°C, reporting a provisional 40.2°C at 12.50pm this afternoon.
As a result of the heatwave, roads have melted and fires have broken out across London.
Met Office chief scientist Professor Stephen Belcher commented: ‘I wasn’t expecting to see this in my career, but the UK has just exceeded 40°C for the first time.’
He added: ‘For me it’s a real reminder that the climate has changed and will continue to change.’
He said Met Office research had showed that ‘it’s virtually impossible for the UK to experience 40°C in an undisrupted climate, but climate change driven by greenhouse gases has made these extreme temperatures possible, and we’re actually seeing this possibility now.’
A recent Met Office study found summers with days above 40°C are still very rare – although the risk of them is increasing – but they could occur as often as every three or four years by the end of the century if emissions remain high.
Even with current pledges to cut emissions, summers with temperatures over 40°C could occur every 15 years by 2100, the research found.
Prof Belcher said: ‘We are already committed to a level of warming and these extremes will get more extreme in the future.
‘The only way we can stabilise the climate is by achieving net zero, and of course the UK has made some great strides in that direction.’
But he added: ‘We want to stabilise the climate at a safe level and that means reaching net zero soon.’
Climate change, as a result of human activities such as burning fossil fuels that put heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, has pushed up global and regional temperatures and made some areas drier, making heatwaves more intense, frequent and likely.
Dr Friederike Otto, from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, said: ’40°C at Heathrow, would have been extremely unlikely or virtually impossible without human caused climate change.
‘It’s now an event that shouldn’t have surprised anyone. While still rare, 40°C is now a reality of British summers.
‘Whether it will become a very common occurrence or remains relatively infrequent is in our hands and is determined by when and at what global mean temperature we reach net zero.’
She also said: ‘It is also in our hands whether every future heatwave will continue to be extremely deadly and disruptive.
‘We have the agency to make us less vulnerable and redesign our cities, homes, schools and hospitals and educate us on how to keep safe.’
The assessment is the second in a series of three reports from the IPCC in the latest review of climate science, which take place every seven years or so for governments.
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