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Washington: Australia will have a capability gap of 10 years without any submarines unless US Congress swiftly passes legislation authorising the transfer of Virginia-class ships promised under the AUKUS pact, the Albanese government has warned.

Three months after the pathway for AUKUS was unveiled in San Diego, Australia now faces the “critical hurdle” of a volatile Congress getting the necessary laws in place to ensure the nation is not left exposed in the Indo-Pacific.

Anthony Albanese, Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak at the AUKUS announcement in San Diego in March.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

“This is going to be a very choppy year-and-a half (before the next US election),” said Democratic Congressman Joe Courtney, who discussed the issue with Australia’s ambassador Kevin Rudd and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy over dinner on Wednesday in Washington.

“The surest, least risky route is to get this package enacted now and just avoid any unexpected surprises with an election process.”

Multiple pieces of legislation must pass to make AUKUS a reality, said Conroy, who is in the US for high-level talks with Congress members, Biden administration officials and the Secretary of the US Navy.

One bill would categorise Australia as a “domestic source” for military production under the US Defence Production Act – a privilege currently only enjoyed by Canada.

Another would facilitate a $3 billion contribution Australia is making to strengthen America’s submarine industrial base and production lines without imperilling the US fleet, which some feared could be stretched to “breaking point” by AUKUS.

But the first crucial item, said Conroy, was “ship transfer legislation authorising the US Navy to transfer two in-service Virginia class submarines to Australia as our interim capability.”

“If we don’t do that we’ll have a capability gap of 10 years without any submarines,” Conroy warned.

“This is the first opportunity for Congress to demonstrate a concrete commitment to the AUKUS arrangements,” he added. “Getting these early pieces is important… That’s the critical hurdle for all of this.”

The first pillar of AUKUS was submarines, the second is advanced capabilities such as AI and quantum computing

Billed as the biggest military capability leap in Australia’s history, the $368 billion AUKUS agreement is a trilateral pact between the US, the UK and Australia to safeguard the Indo-Pacific and counter strategic threats from China.

Under the strategy, Australia will acquire at least three Virginia-class submarines from the US while building up the capacity to develop its own locally made nuclear-powered subs, some time in the 2040s. The pact also promises cooperation on AI, hypersonics, quantum computing and other advanced technologies.

However, questions remain about the lengthy time frame, the extraordinary cost to taxpayers, and the maze of US export control laws that must be reformed for America to share nuclear technology secrets with Australia.

And with an election next year – and Congress divided between Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans controlling the House of Representatives – it is not clear how long it might take for the necessary legislation to pass.

Asked if he was concerned that AUKUS could be placed at risk under a different administration – for instance, if Donald Trump won back the White House next year – Conroy replied: “It’s a brave person who speculates on US presidential outcomes, but what I can say is that across Congress… there is incredibly strong bipartisan support.

“There’s a real spirit of understanding the urgency of it,” he said. “The most common refrain I’m met with his: How can I help?”

Another challenge AUKUS faces is finding and training enough people to build and operate the submarines. The project is expected to create 20,000 jobs over next 30 years, according to the government, but many of them are in industries with a very small presence in Australia.

Conroy said he was confident an AUKUS-ready workforce could be recruited and skilled up through new education and training programs that the government was creating.

“But I’m not going to BS you – defence procurement is hard,” he added, “and no country does it perfectly.”

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