Coronavirus outbreaks die out within 70 days regardless of lockdown measures, expert claims

Coronavirus outbreaks can die out within 70 days without any intervention, an expert has claimed.

An Israeli professor has said all efforts to curb the spread of Covid-19 will lead to the same results because the killer bug is self-limiting.

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Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, has said his analysis proves the virus peaks at 40 days before declining.

His calculations show how the pattern of daily new infections as a percentage of accumulated number of infections.

They start at about 30 per cent and then decrease to 10 per cent after six weeks, before dropping to less than five per cent on the seventh week – or about 49 days.

The former chief Cybernetics adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote in a self-published article this week: "Our analysis shows that this is a constant pattern across countries.

"Surprisingly, this pattern is common to countries that have taken a severe lockdown, including the paralysis of the economy, as well as to countries that implemented a far more lenient policy and have continued in ordinary life."

It's hard to tell if the professor's calculations are correct because there isn't a country to measure the figures against.

For example, even though Sweden has imposed the fewest restrictions there are still some social distancing measures in place.

Furthermore, no two countries have implemented identical lockdown measures or executed the same testing strategies.

When The Times of Israel asked the professor how the virus would die without any intervention, he said: "I have no explanation. There are all kinds of speculations. Maybe it’s related to climate, or the virus has a life-span of its own."

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He also said the policy of lockdowns was a case of "mass hysteria", saying social distancing would be enough.

When The Daily Telegraph analysed infections across 20 countries, they found the peak appeared to be closer to 60 days instead of 40.

Prof Israel's analysis differs to that of Britain's top scientific advisers.

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said this week during a Downing Street presser that the only "exit" from lockdown will be a vaccine or drugs to treat coronavirus.

Britain's top doc added: "In the long run, the exit from this is going to one be one of two things… One of which is a highly effective vaccine.

"And/or highly effective drugs so that people stop dying of this disease even if they catch it, or which can prevent this disease in vulnerable people.

"I think we should be realistic about that.

"We are going to have to rely on other social measures, which are incredibly disruptive.

"Its going to take a long time. We need to be aware of that."

Ministers will review whether or not to extend the current lockdown on May 7 as the Government aims to track down everyone who has had the virus.

The measures, known as mass contact tracing, were in place during the early stages of the virus spreading in the UK, but were abandoned after the numbers became too great.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said this week in the Commons: "Our goal is to get to the point where we can test, track and trace everybody who needs it."

And he added: "What we also need is mass contract tracing as we bring the rate of transmission down and the rate of testing up.

"So that everybody who tests positive, we can contact all the people they have been in contact with, make sure they get access to support and they know what to do.

"That way we can control this virus with fewer of the very extraordinary social distancing measures that have been in place.


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