Credit:Illustration: Matt Golding
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Part one of our Red Alert series has attracted a huge response. Here is a selection of your views
Diplomacy, not weapons, the answer to China war threat
There is no question Australia needs a military equipped to defend itself. But part one of your Red Alert series (“Australia ‘must prepare’ for threat of China war”, 7/3) overlooks some key issues. Diplomacy has a central role in keeping countries in dialogue and at peace. We need war powers reform – the decision to go to war should rest with the parliament, not the prime minister. War with China is unwinnable. It would cause death and destruction on an unimaginable level, and leave Taiwan a shattered ruin. The only winner would be the weapons companies.
Undoubtedly the greatest security threat Australia faces is climate change – war with China would devastate work on climate. What we need is more diplomacy, instead of more weapons spending and illusory submarines.
Margaret Beavis, vice-president, Medical Association for Prevention of War, Australia
Search for peace
It is shocking and terrible that “Australia ‘must prepare’ for threat of China war”. Of course your editorial is correct that our nation must be vigilant and prepared to defend itself. But another war is absolutely the last thing with which our planet and all species could cope. Since Taiwan’s continued independence could be the trigger, then Australia, Taiwan and China must meet and discuss non-war options for solutions. And the sooner the better.
Barbara Fraser, Burwood
Future can change
When five experts predict the shocking possibility of war with China within three years, maybe over Taiwan, don’t forget the unpredictability of prediction. China could have walked into Hong Kong in 1949, but waited until 1997 to evict the British for economic reasons. It’s also possible to predict that a patient China will not risk its economy and the rule of the Communist party in a war over Taiwan, with which it is economically already joined at the hip.
When it comes to the unpredictability of prediction, one person’s guess can be as good as another.
Malcolm McDonald, Burwood
Finding a new world order
Rather than stoking the low road of muscling up for war, The Age should imagine and promote the high road to peace and sustainability as the 21st century unfolds. We are currently faced with the two existential challenges of war with nature and China.
The road to peace and sustainability starts first, with the understanding that the war with nature is the greater of the challenges and will be intensified if an actual war with China were ever to occur. Next, understanding that US global dominance and the associated 1945 world order is not forever. Third, small, medium and large wars have accompanied all previous transitions in the hegemonic order as the declining power sought to cling on.
Australia and its allies must persuade the US to move from defending the old flawed world order and to start creating a new, more inclusive, sustainable and democratic 21st and 22nd century one. Stewart Sweeney, Adelaide, SA
US alliance deserves a rethink
US support was crucial to Australia during the Pacific war – but America today is a very different country. Since 1945 we have followed it into military disasters – all the way with LBJ; our man of steel with George Bush in Iraq; the Afghan catastrophe. Now experts like Mick Ryan say that “We have made our choice. If the United States goes to war over Taiwan, we are going to support them …”
The official defence review is timely, but there is little chance it will include any cool-headed, rational review of the American alliance.
I would be surprised if a majority of informed Australians – armed with a comparison of Chinese and American military adventures over the past 50 years, and given our long support for the one-China policy – agreed with Ryan.
Norman Huon, Port Melbourne
THE FORUM
Why get involved?
Were it not for the prospect of China taking military action to reunite Taiwan with the mainland, the future between it and Australia would likely be a long period of tranquillity and prosperity.
If America wants to defend Taiwan, that is not a reason why Australia should get drawn into a war with China. The terms of the ANZUS treaty do not require Australia to join in a conflict voluntarily entered into by another member state.
No sane person can think that China could be defeated in a war. If America wants to have a go, please for once can we stay out of it?
Daniel Cole, Essendon
Find a way to co-operate
While your panel of experts advises preparing for war, surely the only way forward is to work towards not having a war. Have they forgotten the untold misery of war? Do they predict that “we” will win? Do they really want us to live through perhaps years if not decades of unimaginable suffering? Please, for the sake of humanity, let us all work towards developing peace and co-operation between nations.
Keith Fletcher, Desa Banjar, Bali
Better red than dead
I like my democracy, but would not want to die for it, nor would most Taiwanese, I suspect. Better red than dead.
Let’s duplicate those chip factories somewhere safe, and move on to challenges that concern all of humanity.
Ralph Böhmer, St Kilda West
Prepare to prevent
Surely, we must prepare to prevent a war, rather than always escalating the possibility there will be one. I suggest the Red Alert panel watch All Quiet on the Western Front and ponder the devastation of Ukraine instead of rushing us into a war that those panellists will not have to fight.
Judy Loney, Drumcondra
Asleep to the danger
The editorial “Public should know our readiness for war” (7/3) says “Australians have been kept in the dark about the threat posed by China. Conventional wisdom in Canberra has been that Australia would have less than 10 years’ warning of war.”
While it’s true that efforts have been made by certain vested interests to keep Australians in the dark about the imminence and scale of the threat posed by a China under Xi Jinping’s sway, nevertheless many voices in Australia have for the past decade, or so, been consistently warning of the dangers of a an expansionist, increasingly militaristic and aggressive communist China.
But whether for financial, economic, political or ideological reasons such calls have been pooh-poohed, or damned as fearmongering and warmongering.
For years like a complacent sleeping koala, Australia has slumbered on, potentially only waking up as we come crashing down out of our comfort zone.
Deborah Morrison, Malvern East
Drums are beating
The drums of war are sounding with warnings we will be in military conflict with China within three years. Is this a revision of the 1950s yellow peril sweeping down from the north, or is it a rerun of the 1960s domino effect that led us into the Vietnam tragedy?
Peter Roche, Carlton
Like dominoes
The analysis of your Red Alert panel is reminiscent of the “domino theory” that underpinned US and Australian involvement in the Vietnam War. The CIA and the Australian intelligence community had established an irrefutable linkage, so they claimed, between the communist organisations throughout South-East Asia. If Vietnam fell to the communists, according to the intelligence community, other countries throughout South-East Asia would also fall, like dominoes. Our nation was told by right-leaning politicians and analysts that we had to be proactive and adopt a forward defence posture.
Well, Vietnam fell to the communists and that was it – no dominoes fell but estimates put the number of deaths from the war in the millions. Are we being sucked in again by the same sources?
Michael O’Brien, Armadale
Three years to act
The Australian government couldn’t prepare for any major event, even a benign one such as the Olympics, within three years so the suggestion, by The Age panel of experts, that we need to be prepared for a full-scale war in that time is ridiculous. Indeed, Australia can never be prepared for the death and destruction that a major conflict, with any country, would bring. It would be better to spend the time, effort and money required on diplomacy and saving our world rather than destroying it.
Peter Martina, Warrnambool
Ask the people
Should the Australian government even countenance joining America in the defence of Taiwan then it should do so only after asking the Australian people. I, for one, would emphatically say no.
David Eames-Mayer, Balwyn
Shift to electric
If we face the real prospect of war with China within three years we might as well cancel the order for nuclear submarines because they will be too late. We should instead invest in the wholesale electrification of our transport fleet.
The weakest link in Australia’s defences is its heavy reliance on imported fuel. It would be easy for an aggressor to cut that fuel lifeline, leaving us completely immobilised and unable to defend ourselves. Electrification is the answer. We will never run out of sun and wind.
Helen Moss, Croydon
China provoked
China trades, the US invades. History repeats itself. In modern times, China has been invaded by the US, Britain and Japan (twice). It’s why China has been building a defence wall in the South China Sea. Taiwan is recognised by the UN as being part of China. The island was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynasty. The Kuomintang retreated there in 1949 and the Taiwanese don’t dispute that it is still part of China.
Talk of China’s pending “invasion” of Australia is mischievous. China is being provoked into conflict because China is surging towards being the No.1 economy, if it isn’t there already. The old No.1 doesn’t like it, and like failing empires of the past, will use military might as its last gasp. Russia is doing the same thing.
The US will find any excuse to invade as we saw in Iraq, and before that, in Vietnam. The same people who supported the illegal invasion of Iraq are now beating the drums of war on China.
Paul Kennelly, Caulfield North
US defence not a given
Should Trump regain the US presidency it should not be taken as a given that the US would involve itself in a conflict should China use force in an attempt to seize control of Taiwan.
That would leave Australia on its own or, more likely, sitting on the sidelines watching the events.
Garry Meller, Bentleigh
Keep calm
It is hard to understand the motive behind your “Red Alert” article. While the information is no doubt accurate and Australian unreadiness for war is patent, what is “the Australian population” expected to do in response?
The ordinary person cannot buy tanks or missiles, but panic could be generated which, given racism endemic in our ethos, could impact negatively on Australian Chinese citizens, or further enhance mental illness in the community, particularly in our young people.
We voted for a government of responsible, knowledgeable people who we need to believe will prepare for this looming possibility. In the meantime, generating calm, while warning against complacency, is surely one of the contributions expected of your newspaper.
Kay Moulton, Surrey Hills
Jaw jaw, not war war
A headline I would love to see: “Australia prepares for peace”. Defending ourselves is one thing but the US military build-up on Australian soil is quite another: increased numbers of US marines stationed in the Northern Territory; six B52 bombers that may carry nuclear weapons at Tindal airbase; secretive Pine Gap; nuclear-powered submarines for which we will depend on others. And now we are advised to prepare for war with a neighbour and major trading partner?
War is a huge cost to human life and the environment. It brings destruction, misery and death. Only the armaments industry profits.
I do not want to be dragged into another war by the US, which has its own agenda. I want peace with our Pacific neighbours, China included. Talking, not fighting.
Anne Sgro, Coburg North
Australia can’t interfere
Australia cannot legally interfere in a Chinese civil war between China and Taiwan. We recognised the whole of China inclusive of Taiwan and so did the US.
China’s overbearing interference in the South China Sea is another matter altogether. Threats to the maritime borders of any country in the South China Sea need defending. There are non-military ways to apply pressure in such circumstances.
Elizabeth Wirtz, Bass
Firm without provocation
We cannot rely on a divided America for our ongoing security. Or on our defences to repel a full-scale Chinese attack on our shores. Nor can we be Switzerland. A dilemma? Certainly.
Nonetheless we must pursue a diplomatic course in our region. If there is a right-wing agenda in our country then national security is top of the list. We are no longer living in a World War II scenario. We are living in a time of potential Armageddon. We have to believe that China is just as wary as we are of such a conflagration.
We have to stand firm without provocation. We have to remain measured in areas of strategy. We have to be forthright in the values we hold and not be diminished by fear.
Tony Newport, Hillwood
And another thing
Defence preparedness
Could the national security boffins ask China to hold off until we get our new submarines? By then a nice, friendly person might be the party leader.
John Bye, Elwood
Credit:Illustration: Matt Golding
So, is it possible, then, to reinstall the French submarine contracts so we might have some modicum of defence of our nation sooner rather than never?
Loucille McGinley, Brighton East
Wake up Australia! Great work by the selected panel of five and The Age.
Ivan Gaal, Fitzroy North
Lives at risk
It would only take the detonation of 100 nuclear weapons to kill everyone on Earth yet there are almost 13,000 in existence and around 2000 ready for use. Remember that when we talk about war preparedness.
Bruce King, Malvern East
The Red Alert report is beyond depressing. Human beings might be conquering the development of artificial intelligence, but sadly have a long way to go in developing emotional intelligence.
Fiona White, Alfredton
Listen closely to the drumbeat of war and you’ll hear the digging of a young person’s grave.
Scott Hurley, Brighton East
Have we already had the debate about whether Australia should follow the US into another bloody war? Maybe I missed it.
Patrice McCarthy, Bendigo
Predictable panic
Five people, jobs depending on the fear of imminent war, put forward their collective opinion on the anxiety of impending war – and lo and behold, we must prepare for war with China.
Tony McLean, East St Kilda
In my opinion, the front page of The Age was inappropriate and fearmongering.
Carmyl Winkler, Benalla
The prospect of armed conflict with China is worth talking about, but the idea we are not prepared is immaterial. There is no amount of spending that would ever see us properly prepared.
Matt Dunn, Leongatha
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