It was said of the French Bourbon kings, renowned for their stubbornness, that “they have learned nothing, and forgotten nothing”.

Today, as Anthony Albanese holds a handsome election-winning lead with voters so far resisting blaming him for their economic woes, the federal Liberal Party, historically Australia’s most successful political outfit, accustomed to ruling the joint for generations, is in grave danger of being branded the New Bourbons.

Peter Dutton must make a choice on the Voice.Credit:Dionne Gain

Almost a year since the election, there are few signs that it has recognised or accepted that it has to change if it is to have any hope of regaining its heartland.

That is not only obvious in the approach Peter Dutton has taken on the Voice but on other critical issues. The Voice is the Liberals’ chance to show they can set aside culture wars and make a constructive contribution to the establishment of a body to address an intractable problem, given little else has worked so far to improve the lot of Indigenous Australians, or to make amends for the wrongs they have suffered.

If Dutton wants to signal that he has heeded the messages, rather than snipe from the sidelines, he should announce sooner rather than later that he wants the referendum to succeed, and that he will vote for the Voice while knowing many of his MPs will vote No. He can then work in good faith with parliament to refine the question before it goes to a referendum.

He can then also pledge that if it succeeds, he will fight tooth and nail to ensure that its infrastructure is designed to best fulfil its mission without going beyond its intended charter.

Otherwise, if the referendum fails, he will be blamed. If it succeeds, he will be irrelevant.

Saying No will win the applause of the Sky After Dark sirens, whose counsel will lead him only to another glorious defeat. And his sorry-I-was-not-sorry declaration of a few weeks ago on the apology to the stolen generations will count for nothing.

If the Voice fails despite his positive intervention, he would be free to blame the prime minister for any strategic, tactical or rhetorical missteps – and there have been a few – since the debate began with a vengeance last year.

Dutton deserves credit for keeping his side united since last May. Unity is important. It is not everything. Leadership matters more, as does courage. Perhaps Dutton was spooked by David Littleproud’s fate when a majority of Nationals MPs made clear to their leader they would not tolerate a Yes from the party as he desired.

National MPs made it clear to their leader David Littleproud that they would not tolerate supporting a Yes vote.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

The Nationals occupy different territory from the Liberals, whose great strength has been their ability to appeal to the middle ground. There is no future in denying that ground has shifted.

Set aside for now the continuing reluctance to adapt to the reality of climate change, where the review of nuclear energy as an option is seen even by some of its advocates as another stalling tactic which will never happen, along with the completely bonkers plan to recycle Tony Abbott into the Senate, and consider the issue of gender where tin-eared responses cost Liberals so dearly in 2022.

There was a heaven-sent opportunity after Alan Tudge announced his resignation to show they got it.

Yet the next day, deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley could not bring herself to say to Patricia Karvelas on Radio National that it would be a good idea if the preselectors of Aston chose a woman.

Nor could she bring herself to say that it would also be a good idea if Dutton chose a woman to replace the disgraced Tudge on his frontbench.

It took a few days before the leadership let it be known that maybe it would be best if the preselectors went for a woman. Then incredibly, Dutton opted to recycle David Coleman into his shadow ministry instead of giving another woman a go, perhaps newly elected MPs Jenny Ware from NSW or Victoria’s Zoe McKenzie.

Wanting more detail on the Voice is legitimate – even people of goodwill want more and Dutton tapped into the public mood by calling for it – but it is neither possible nor feasible to know every last detail before the referendum.

Wanting more information about the Voice is legitimate but it is not feasible to know every detail before the referendum.Credit:Lisa Visentin

There is still time for all, including the prime minister, to get both messaging and content right. Even so, it will require a leap of faith for many people to vote Yes, then for them to trust parliament to get it right.

It would be peak arrogance for the Coalition to insist on a No vote, in the face of such overwhelming support for Yes from religious, business, ethnic, sporting and community groups.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet and Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff have seamlessly supported the Voice, yet federally there seems to be a wilfully stubborn refusal to respond to the tremors which have left the Liberals dysfunctional in so many states and territories.

According to one leading moderate, it would be “pretty f—ing offensive” if Dutton said No because he feared upsetting his conservative base or wanted to “dog whistle” to an ageing, declining membership.

Generally, moderates like Dutton. They say he is a good, reasonably normal person with a good office and hope he will end up doing the right thing. They fear he won’t because he has been hog-tied by the conservatives. He resents the insinuation, insisting to accusers that he runs his own show.

To Dutton’s credit, he has not sought to silence Voice advocates including Bridget Archer.Credit:James Brickwood

However, according to one high-ranking Liberal, “95 per cent of the party’s membership and 85 per cent of the parliamentary party” would oppose the Voice. And therein lies his problem.

To his credit, Dutton has not sought to silence Voice advocates such as Andrew Bragg, Bridget Archer and Russell Broadbent. Nor should he try. He would be lighting a bonfire in the party room.

He is said to be keen to get more moderates into federal parliament, including NSW Treasurer Matt Kean.

Kean, now in a bromance with Dutton, would add considerable heft to the moderates. However, if the NSW state government is re-elected, which is still possible despite the internal chaos, Kean won’t run for the federal seat of Bradfield. It is now held by Paul Fletcher, who falls into the pale, stale, male category of candidate, who will lose if he runs again.

Polling still shows Labor with comfortable leads. Labor’s private research reports voters believe Albanese is performing much better than they had expected. The Liberals’ private polling shows Scott Morrison has inflicted considerable damage on the Liberal brand and that he remains a drag in NSW. Dutton is travelling badly in Victoria.

Some Liberals fear the opposition will perform a once-in-a-century feat and lose Aston to the government at the April 1 byelection.

Both sides concede voters are continuing to cut Albanese some slack. Voters give him credit for restoring Australia’s standing internationally and – so far – for his handling of the economy, where many believe he is responding conscientiously to problems not of his creation.

Some Liberals fear the opposition will perform a once-in-a-century feat and lose Aston to the government at the April 1 byelection.

Dutton could struggle to convince voters to punish the government, although it has given him a couple of early free kicks. Firstly, the timing enabled the Liberals to choose Roshena Campbell, a former Age columnist, without a preselection, which Dutton had feared would be won by the only male candidate – and no, that was never going to be Josh Frydenberg whose mindset remains Kooyong or bust. Secondly, they opened up debate on superannuation and other sensitive taxes.

Putting the superannuation changes beyond the next election and limiting them to balances above $3 million, thereby creating another dilemma for Dutton, was smart policy and smart politics. But Albanese then had to close off debate about imposing a capital gains tax on the family home after Treasurer Jim Chalmers initially failed to do so but did later.

Good on Chalmers for trying to end the tyranny of rule-in rule-out questions from sunset to sunrise, designed to trap politicians into making unequivocal promises which then bind them to doing nothing, but provides lucrative fodder for the media and the opposition.

Dutton will campaign hard on the spectre of other broken promises, the cost of living, and cuts to infrastructure projects which affect Aston.

Labor will emphasise the local connections of its candidate, Mary Doyle, and remind voters of its initiatives on cheaper childcare, medicines and fee-free TAFE places. Tellingly, they will be encouraged to send a message to the Liberals that they “need to do better than Dutton”.

Broadbent warns it will be “very, very difficult” to retain Aston, telling me:“That mountain may be too hard to climb.”

A narrow victory for the Liberals, which most expect, will provide a reprieve. Another smart woman will get to sit on the backbench. An emphatic win would unnerve the government and could herald a comeback for Dutton, encouraging him to forget his heartland and go after Labor seats like Holt and Bruce in Victoria or in the Hunter Valley in NSW.

Defeat would doom that plan and him.

The Opinion newsletter is a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up here.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

More from our award-winning columnists

The sum of us: According to research, Australians are becoming dumber when it comes to financial literacy. Can you answer these five money questions? And if you can’t, what should you do? – Jessica Irvine

Profit or people: Greedy landlords are feeding the rental crisis: “Landlordism has gone wild in this country, enabled by real estate agents. The state government ignores the problem.” – Jenna Price

Crazy hours: If you want to climb the political ladder in Canberra and change Australia, shouldn’t you expect 70-hour work weeks, or is something wrong with the democratic system that demands it? – Sean Kelly

Most Viewed in National

From our partners

Source: Read Full Article