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The Democrat has been the race’s overwhelming favourite, with recent polls giving the former Vice President a 10-point lead over the incumbent Mr Trump. Yet, new data has shown that despite Mr Biden’s supposed popularity with the US public, where it matters in the well-documented swing states, Mr Trump appears to have the edge. In order for Mr Trump to claim another four years as President, he must win over a number of these key states – including Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
If he can successfully navigate wins in the majority of these areas, his chances of reelection are given a major boost.
Betfair has analysed trends of betting and shown that if these patterns are maintained Mr Trump should claim five of the 10 swing states.
Those states appearing to back Mr Trump are Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are showing support for Mr Biden.
Betfair spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: “Mr Trump is hitting the final day of campaigning hard with an ambitious schedule of rallies planned and it looks as though that tactic is paying off because the Republicans are leading the betting in key swing states Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa.
“However Mr Biden and the Democrats are ahead in states that Republicans won in 2016, including Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania on Betfair Exchange.
“Even though Mr Biden is the odds-on favourite at 1/2 to become the next President, Mr Trump is in a much better position in the betting than he was at this point four years ago when he overcame odds of 9/2 (18 percent) to beat 1/4 (80 percent) shot Hillary Clinton, the incumbent has almost double the chance of winning this time around at odds of 2/1 (33 percent).”
Four years ago, Mr Trump claimed a stunning victory over Democrat Ms Clinton, who although won the popular vote, failed to clinch victory as a result of the electoral vote.
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Support for Mr Trump, a former reality TV star, has grown in recent weeks and the final Democracy Institute poll for the Sunday Express also claimed he would win on November 3.
That poll, which was produced by pollsters that have routinely found Mr Trump to be favourite, revealed the President has the backing of 48 percent of the public, while Mr Biden has 47 percent – in the popular vote.
The poll had Mr Trump’s lead at two percent, and came just after he was hospitalised due to a positive coronavirus infection.
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Patrick Basham, from the institute, said the “razor thin national lead” Mr Trump currently holds is a “statistical tie that falls firmly within the poll’s margin of error”.
He explained that the popular vote will not decide the overall winner of the election, which is key for Mr Trump.
He added: “The Republican’s vote is a very efficient one, as it was in 2016. This is the President’s trump card.
“Mr Trump’s voters are more evenly dispersed across the country than are Mr Biden’s.”
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