Melbourne’s public transport network is close to settling at an expected post-pandemic “new normal”, with rush-hour trains and trams tipped to remain emptier while demand grows for travel at other times and outside the CBD.

November was the busiest month on Victoria’s public transport network since COVID-19, according to government data, which shows it bounced back to 77 per cent of 2019 levels with 1.49 million trips.

Public transport passenger numbers are bouncing back close to their expected peak. Credit:Simon Schluter

Monash University Professor of Public Transport Graham Currie has studied public transport use around the world during the pandemic and has forecast Melbourne to settle at around 80 per cent of pre-COVID levels.

“People have learnt that they can work from home more and some people out there are still going to be concerned about COVID,” he said. “A lot of those people are going to drive their cars and that’s going to be a problem for Melbourne’s roads.”

Melbourne’s public transport network has been slower to recover than some cities around the world, which Currie said was a result of it being designed primarily to move workers in and out of the CBD.

Public Transport Users Association president Tony Morton said Melbourne’s system needed to adapt to the “new normal”, where people commuted to the CBD less and travelled more around their home suburbs.

“The reason we see so much traffic congestion … is because we haven’t designed our public transport network around the day-to-day travel needs of the people in our suburbs,” Morton said.

“We’ve allowed our public transport system to be designed primarily around the needs of central city commuting. It needs to be re-conceived as a network and a system for more general travel.”

Morton said buses, which have relatively been the busiest form of public transport during the pandemic, could meet that demand if the state government made a significant investment improving them.

Buses usually account for around 20 per cent of public transport trips in Melbourne but had more passengers than trains or trams during some periods of the pandemic. Patronage has recovered more quickly too, and regional buses were in November the closest to their pre-COVID normal, at 94 per cent capacity.

Metro Trains has taken the biggest hit with passengers and only returned to 65 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in November, while trams were at 78 per cent pre-COVID capacity.

Currie said more people continued riding buses because they had a lower perceived risk of COVID infection than trains or trams, while serving fewer CBD commuters and more low-income passengers who could not work from home or afford to travel by car.

Department of Transport data illustrates the effect on the system of CBD office employees working from home, as passenger numbers during the weekday morning and afternoon commuter peaks are down almost one-third compared to 2019. Weekends were closer to normal, down only 8 per cent.

Yarra Trams chief executive Adele McCarthy said Mondays and Fridays were the quietest days on the network, but the demand on night and weekend services had recovered faster, as passenger numbers were back to 87 per cent.

Melbourne’s bus network is not delivering value for money, Infrastructure Victoria says.Credit:Chris Hopkins

“Melbourne… [is] a real destination city with a flourishing arts, culture and entertainment scene that attracts visitors at all hours of the day, even if they didn’t come in to do a day’s work in the city,” McCarthy said.

A Metro spokesperson said there was now significant variation in weekday travel patterns, with Thursdays typically around 25 per cent busier than Mondays (522,000 passengers versus 424,000).

Infrastructure Victoria said in a report earlier this month, that the bus network needed a major overhaul to get better value for money from buses and to deliver affordable transport to outer suburbs, where it was needed most.

The Andrews government is investigating how to reform the bus network.

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