NHS strikes mean one in six people in England could soon be on NHS waiting lists, a leading medic has warned

• Dr Tim Cooksley said time left to prevent lists reaching 9million was running out
• It comes as consultants are set to strike again next month for a 35pc pay rise

One in six people in England could soon be on NHS waiting lists if doctors do not ‘immediately’ end their strikes, a leading medic has warned.

Dr Tim Cooksley, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said the ‘window of opportunity’ to prevent lists reaching 9 million is ‘rapidly closing’.

Consultants are due to end their 48 hour walkout at 7am on Saturday but have another stoppage planned for next month as they pursue a 35 per cent pay rise.

Junior doctors are also locked in a pay row with government and have promised further industrial action at a time when waiting lists stand at a record 7.47 million.

Last year, prior to strikes, leaked NHS England modelling revealed officials believed an ‘optimistic scenario’ was the waiting list for routine NHS care peaking at 9.2 million in March 2024.

Dr Tim Cooksley, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said the ‘window of opportunity’ to prevent lists reaching 9 million is ‘rapidly closing’

READ MORE: Up to one in EIGHT patients have been waiting over a year for NHS treatment in ‘stark postcode lottery’ – so how bad are queues in your area?

The figure was repeated by then-health secretary Sajid Javid in Parliament. Dr Cooksley told the i newspaper: ‘Consultant strikes today are the latest illustration of the low morale that permeates throughout NHS staff currently and increasingly felt by patients.

‘These strikes will have a greater impact on waiting lists, resulting in larger numbers needing care and is likely to reach the 9 million figure predicted by Sajid Javid.

‘An increasing number of patients on the waiting lists will inevitably become emergency patients.

‘This is going to add to the huge strain on urgent and emergency care services with increased degrading corridor care for patients and winter scenes in 2023 worse than those of 2022.

‘We are highly likely to be back in a situation where we face calls for national major incident-type plans; we cannot wait to hit that situation again.

‘This needs government action to resolve immediately: the narrow window of opportunity to reverse this is rapidly closing.’ Hospital consultants on average incomes of £134,000 have been awarded a 6 per cent rise, which the British Medical Association described as ‘insulting’ and ‘derisory’.

The senior medics also receive generous pensions, which means they are able to retire at 65 on incomes of £60,000 a year.

Junior doctors have been awarded a pay rise of 6 per cent plus a consolidated payment of £1,250, which is equivalent to an average increase of 8.1 per cent – or more than 10 per cent for those in their first year of training.

Their combined action is likely to prevent Rishi Sunak from delivering on his pledge to cut NHS waits, with consultants admitting they are using patients as ‘leverage’ in their pay negotiations.

Sir Julian Hartley, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents trusts, said: ‘The impact of this industrial action varies from trust to trust and region to region with some trusts being much harder hit than others.

‘But what is undeniable is the scale of the challenge these walkouts are having on the delivery of patient care as trusts try and bring down record care backlogs.

‘With more than 750,000 patient appointments delayed so far since strike action began in the NHS, tackling these backlogs is increasingly becoming an uphill struggle the longer these strikes go on.

‘One trust leader reported having to cancel all planned care, while many more have told us they have had to significantly scale back appointments, operations and procedures ahead of these strikes.

‘Leaders across the NHS are doing everything they can to keep services running, including cancer services and urgent and emergency care.

‘But as the most senior doctors in the NHS, delivering the most complex care and supervising other colleagues, the work consultants do cannot be covered by other staff.

‘Their absence has a huge knock-on effect across the health service. More strikes can and must be avoided for the sake of patients and staff.

‘We urge the government and unions to end the stand-off by entering serious talks about pay.’ 

The BMA says doctors’ incomes have fallen by more than a third in real-terms since 2008.

Striking consultants provided a ‘Christmas Day’ level of service, which means they delivered urgent care only and refused all other treatment. Junior doctors staged a full walkout, including from A&E and cancer wards.

The Department of Health and Social Care said: ‘Cutting waiting lists is one of the government’s top five priorities and we are making progress on our plan.

‘We have virtually eliminated 18-month waits and are taking action to bring down waits of over a year – including reducing the number of people requiring follow-up appointments.’

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