Volodymyr Zelensky addresses Davos forum

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Russia has warned the US that supporting Ukraine to recapture Crimea would be “extremely dangerous” and would “raise the conflict to a new level”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any attempts to reclaim Crimea would “not bode well for European security” after reports suggested the US was warming to the idea of backing such a military move. During a video address to the World Economic Forum on Thursday morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces were determined to reclaim Crimea, saying that if the West “give us your weapons, we will return what is ours”.

Hesitancy from the West to afford Ukraine offensive or longer range weapons has been, in part, down to a fear of possible Russian escalation should Crimea come under serious threat.

Its value to Russia and Vladimir Putin cannot be understated. In terms of the conflict, it is a vital supply point connecting Russia to mainland Ukraine through the occupied parts of Kherson Oblast.

In terms of more overarching, geopolitical significance, Crimea contains the port of Sevastopol, affording Russia year-round access to a warm water port from which to launch their Black Sea fleet and to export goods around the world.

Their reaction to the explosion on the Kerch Strait bridge, connecting Russia to Crimea, on October 8, which has involved extensive bombing of Ukrainian cities hundreds of miles behind the front lines, and their drastic fortification and redeployment of troops to the land corridor above Crimea following their retreat from the southern port city of Kherson in November, speak to the significance of the region to Putin.

Now, however, according to unnamed US officials, NATO forces are warming to the idea of backing Ukraine to reclaim the territory that was annexed in 2014.

The New York Times reported on Thursday morning that military and administration officials are starting to believe that “if the Ukrainian military can show Russia that its control of Crimea can be threatened, that would strengthen Kyiv’s position in any future negotiations”.

The report added: “In addition, fears that the Kremlin would retaliate using a tactical nuclear weapon have dimmed, US officials and experts said — though they cautioned that the risk remained.”

The comments were made as Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that “Crimea is our land, our territory”.

He said: “Crimea is our land, our territory. It is our sea and our mountains. Give us your weapons — we will return what is ours.”

Following the turn of the year, hesitancy to send offensive equipment to Ukraine appears to have dissipated, with the defending nation’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba hailing the “end of the weapons taboo”.

The British have pledged a company of Challenger 2 main battle tanks, the US have promised at least 50 Bradley fighting vehicles, Germany are sending 40 Marder fighting vehicles and France are sending roughly 30 of their own armoured personnel carriers.

In addition, Sweden, Poland, Estonia, Denmark and Finland have all made promises of tanks, artillery systems and APCs, as have a a number of other European nations.

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While the US and Germany are still holding back from sending their own main battle tanks, the Abrams M1s and the Leopard 2s respectively, the pledges thus far demonstrate a noticeable NATO shift away from only supplying defensive weaponry.

The equipment now in the hands of Ukraine could prove vital in their forces pushing across the Dnipro river to the south of Kherson and into the land corridor above Crimea.

The forces stationed in Kherson Oblast have already reportedly made inroads into the Kinburn Spit to the west of Kherson city, which analysts have suggested would be a safer route towards Crimea.

As Ukraine continues to receive more offensive weapons, with the Ramstein meeting of Kyiv backers on Friday likely to bring further promises, movements towards a Crimean retaking could prove increasingly likely.

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