Victorian election 2022
The teals have not been the disruptive force in Victorian politics that some had anticipated, with independents trailing in the state election vote count.
Former senior Liberal frontbencher John Pesutto, who dramatically lost his seat on live television in 2018, has a narrow lead in the two-candidate preferred count for Hawthorn ahead of teal independent Melissa Lowe.
Hawthorn independent Melissa Lowe was leading the vote count on election night, but has fallen behind.Credit:Scott McNaughton
Independent Sophie Torney trailed Liberal Jess Wilson in Kew and Liberal David Southwick was expected to retain Caulfield despite challenges from independent Nomi Kaltmann and Labor’s Lior Harel.
Mornington was too close to call, with former federal MP Chris Crewther ahead of independent Kate Lardner – a Frankston Hospital doctor and mother-of-two – by 177 votes as of Sunday evening, with almost 80 per cent of the vote counted.
With 80 per cent of the vote counted, Kate Lardner was narrowly behind in Mornington. Credit:Eamon Gallagher
Monash University lecturer Dr Zareh Ghazarian said the teals had not done as well at the state election because the policy debate was different, and they were not battling a long-standing Coalition government as they had in the federal poll.
“I think the different policy debate at the state level didn’t provide the teals with much oxygen,” Ghazarian said.
“The political debate in the state election was dominated by service delivery, healthcare, education, infrastructure and these were issues that didn’t really align with what the teals were on about at the federal level, which was integrity, climate change and gender.”
Ghazarian said Victorian laws that limit donations from individuals or organisations to $4210 over four years also limited the capacity of independent candidates to amass financial resources. By contrast, federal electoral laws do not cap donations or election spending.
“I think the structure and financing regime has a major impact,” he said.
Ghazarian also said there appeared to be less grassroots support for the teals during the state election campaign.
Kew independent Sophie Torney drew support away from the major parties but not enough to win. Credit:Eddie Jim
Earlier this year Kew independent Sophie Torney’s chief of staff, Rob Baillieu – the son of former Liberal premier Ted Baillieu – sent a letter to teal supporters saying polling suggested an independent could win the seat, but only if supporters rallied around Torney.
Baillieu, who was the volunteer manager for successful federal teal candidate Monique Ryan, said in the letter that more than 1000 people had put up signs or volunteered for Ryan.
“If we do the same for Sophie then we can almost guarantee an independent win,” he wrote.
On Sunday, he told The Age that fatigue and resourcing challenges after the federal election meant teal candidates were not selected until three months before the election and campaigns did not begin in earnest until two months before polling day.
“Probably only one in two people knew who the candidates were,” Baillieu said.
“Such short campaigns would naturally struggle to achieve the cut-through of the six to seven month campaigns of federal independents, especially given Liberal candidates had been campaigning for 12 plus months,” Baillieu said.
A Liberal source said that dislike for former prime minister Scott Morrison was the primary reason behind the teals’ victory in the federal election.
“The teals have gone full on in the state election, but haven’t produced anywhere near the result.”
Simon Holmes a Court, whose fundraising vehicle Climate 200 backed independent candidates in Hawthorn, Kew, Mornington and Caulfield, said the election result was amazing given that public funding flows to incumbents, making it difficult for an independent to break into Victorian politics.
Under an indexed formula, any party or independent MP who received more than 4 per cent of the vote at the last state election is entitled to $6.33 for every lower house vote they received and $3.16 for every upper house vote.
“The independents start with nothing and have to build a ladder to climb over that wall,” Holmes a Court said. “So to get as far as they got, which is not even halfway up the wall, but right to the very top and it’s only hundreds of votes separating them is, I think, a remarkable achievement. The idea that Kew, Hawthorn and Mornington would be neck and neck between an independent and the Liberal Party was unthinkable in 2018.”
Holmes a Court also said the teal movement had made the major parties focus on climate change and integrity. “We’re really happy that it was a climate election, and these community independents ran extremely competitive campaigns,” he said.
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