Rishi Sunak braces for a battering as voters head for the polls TODAY in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections – with heavy rain forecast

Tories are braced for a battering as voters head for the polls in two crucial by-elections today. 

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer face another high-profile test as ballots are staged in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth – with heavy rain forecast as the country endures Storm Babet.

Labour are hoping to provoke panic in Tory ranks by seizing both of the previously true-blue seats – although they will need massive swings to do so.

With perhaps a year to go before a general election, Sir Keir has been revelling in consistent double-digit leads in national polls.  

Conservatives have been playing down their prospects for clinging on, although in Mid Beds the Lib Dems could ease their path by splitting the left-wing vote. 

Mr Sunak himself will not be in the country when the results are announced in the early hours of tomorrow morning, as he is visiting the Middle East amid the Israel crisis. 

The areas are expected to be spared the worst effects of Storm Babet, but conditions are still likely to be grim, raising the possibility that turnout could be supressed.  

Rishi Sunak (right) and Keir Starmer (left) face another high-profile test as contests are staged in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth 

Former MP Chris Pincher secured 66 per cent of the vote in Tamworth four years ago

The areas are expected to be spared the worst effects of Storm Babet, but conditions are still likely to be grim, raising the possibility that turnout could be supressed

Little polling has been done on the by-elections, and they are often not reflected at general elections – with voters using a ‘free hit’ to vent frustration at the government. 

A leaked Tory internal assessment suggested earlier this week that in Mid Beds its vote share could plunge from the 60 per cent Nadine Dorries received in 2019 to 30 per cent.  

Meanwhile, in Tamworth the missive to party chair Greg Hands predicted that backing could slump to between 28 per cent and 33 per cent. That compares to the 66 per cent ex-MP Chris Pincher had four years ago.

Although the claims were dismissed as expectation management, a Tory source told MailOnline that Labour had sidelined the Lib Dems as the campaign had gone on, and Ed Davey’s party was now targeting blue areas.

The source said the situation reflected national polling, which has put Labour up to 20 points ahead. 

Losses in the historically safe seats would be a shattering blow for the PM, and would amplify the clamour for early tax cuts. The Tories have held Mid Beds since 1931.

In July, Labour pulled off a huge by-election win in Selby and Ainsty, overturning a blue 20,000 majority on a 21 per cent swing.

However, the Opposition has insisted it is a ‘moonshot’ to win either or both seats in the contests today.

The contest has been bad-tempered in both seats, with attacks on the Tory candidate in Tamworth for suggesting in an old social media post that families using food banks should ‘f*** off’ if they could afford TVs and phones.

Mr Sunak yesterday declined to condemn an apparent suggestion by his Tamworth candidate that out-of-work parents who cannot afford to feed their children should ‘f*** off’.

The Tory leader was asked during Prime Minister’s Questions about a photo of a flowchart shared by Andrew Cooper on Facebook.

The diagram suggested that those who are out of work, pay for ‘TV Sky/BT/etc’, or ‘have a phone contract + £30’ should ‘f*** off’ rather than seek help.

In reply to the question, the Prime Minister said only that he was ‘proud of our record supporting people with the cost of living’, before outlining Government policies aimed at supporting people through the crisis.

Mr Cooper told Channel 5 News he was ‘sorry if I’ve offended somebody’ after the post was publicised.

Asked if regretted sharing the image, he said: ‘Obviously it is not something I would share now in today’s world.

‘We obviously mature and have different opinions than we do three years ago.’

He added: ‘Of course I’m sorry if I’ve offended somebody. But it is very hard in today’s world to have an opinion and not to offend somebody.’

The Prime Minister’s press secretary told reporters that ‘mid-term by-elections are extremely tough for incumbent governments’ but said the Tories were ‘fighting for every vote’.

A Labour spokesman said: ‘These are in super safe Tory seats that would require for us to overturn results larger than those which we overturned in Selby.

‘If we were to win Tamworth and had that swing at a general election, it would mean that the Tories will be down to fewer than 60 seats at the next general election.

‘So a little bit of perspective is required here. Tamworth is a seat where the Tories got 66 per cent of the vote at the last election. Mid Bedfordshire is a similarly safe Tory constituency.’

Deltapoll research published earlier this week offered more evidence of a ‘glitterbomb bounce’ for Keir Starmer after his conference last week.

Deltapoll research has offered more evidence of a ‘glitterbomb bounce’ for Keir Starmer after his conference last week

A separate Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey had slightly better news for Mr Sunak with the gap narrowing from 16 to 14 points

Labour was up four on 47 per cent while the Conservatives were down one on 27 per cent.

A separate Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey had slightly better news for Mr Sunak with the gap narrowing from 16 to 14 points. 

There was little sign of a boost for Mr Sunak from the Conservative conference in Manchester at the start of the month.

But Labour’s gathering in Manchester last week seemed to move the dial, with speculation that Sir Keir gained from his calm response to a protester storming the stage during his keynote speech. 

A 28-year-old man was arrested after yelling that ‘democracy is in crisis’ as he poured glitter over the Opposition leader unchallenged. 

Sir Keir –  who still appeared to have some glitter on his face the following day –  joked about the experience, saying it would take more than one ‘idiot’ to derail his plan to take power at the next election.

A YouGov poll afterwards showed Labour’s lead growing to 23 points, while Opinium at the weekend found it was up two points to 16.

Sir Keir’s personal approval rating rose nine points with the latter firm, to plus one. That included an 18-point increase in approval from 2019 Conservative voters. 

In contrast, Mr Sunak’s approval rating was minus 24. 

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