The Tories could win just 130 seats in the next general election, polling guru warns amid yet more party infighting 

• Sir John Curtice said the Tories are facing their worst election result in history
• The University of Strathclyde pollster said the Tories face winning just 130 seats
• Disputes over immigration with Rishi Sunak are ‘potentially playing with fire’

The Tories could win just 130 seats in the next election – their worst ever result – if the party fails to unite, a polling guru has warned.

Sir John Curtice said MPs defying Rishi Sunak’s immigration stance and opposing the Rwanda Bill are ‘potentially playing with fire’.

The Prime Minister remains well behind Sir Keir Starmer in the polls, with a recent survey giving Labour a 17-point lead.

If this remains until the General Election, Sir John said the Tories would be ‘lucky to win much more than 200 seats’ and could fare even worse.

He added: ‘This week will have done nothing to dispel the perception that the Conservative Party is divided, and divided parties rarely prosper at the polls. But how serious a defeat are the Conservatives facing if they cannot reduce Labour’s lead? 

Sir John Curtice said that the Conservatives would be ‘lucky’ to win more than 200 seats if they fail to dig into Labour’s substantial lead 

The Conservative Party remains well behind Sir Keir Starmer in the polls, with a recent survey giving Labour a 17-point lead

‘The party would certainly be lucky to win much more than 200 seats. That is the figure that emerges if we assume that the rises and falls in party support since 2019 registered just before the immigration announcements were to occur in each and every constituency.

‘But this is undoubtedly too optimistic an assessment of the Conservatives’ prospects.’

Sir John told The Sunday Telegraph that if recent polling patterns, such as from the May elections, were replicated in a General Election, the ‘outcome for the Conservatives could be bleak indeed – maybe as few as 130 seats, the worst outcome in the party’s history’. 

He added: ‘In pursuing their disagreements with Mr Sunak over immigration, Tory MPs should realise they are potentially playing with fire.’

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