Ukraine: Lord Richards warns of a ‘bloody battle’

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Ukraine risks a “very bloody battle” and nuclear retaliation should they attempt to reclaim Crimea eight years after it was annexed by Russia, a defence expert has claimed. Former UK chief of the defence staff Lord Richards suggested a “properly monitored and executed referendum” could take place over Crimea, the small landmass in the Black Sea, whereby Russia is allowed to remain in control of it for a “number of years”, though it looks unlikely such a vote will be held, and that the only other option is war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly suggested his forces will take Crimea, by force if necessary, and in the last few weeks, his soldiers have surrounded the southern city of Kherson just 150 kilometres north of it. 

Lord Richards said: “There could be some arrangement over Crimea, a properly monitored and executed referendum, perhaps a sort of Hong Kong deal whereby it is allowed to remain in Russian hands for a number of years. 

“The alternative is a very bloody battle, the loss of a particularly totemic part of what Russia has taken in Ukraine, which the Russians view as Russian. They are not alone in that, I have to say, in the West notwithstanding criticism of what they did. 

“If Ukraine was to successfully take Crimea, then we get back into this issue of escalation, and rubbing Putin’s nose in it could provoke him to do something silly, such as – well everyone knows what I am going to say – the use of nuclear tactical warheads.” 

President Zelensky, speaking during his nightly address on October 25, said Ukrainian forces will “definitely liberate Crimea”. 

The President has been consistent in his convictions and Crimea is, in his view and many others, part of Ukraine. 

He said: “We will definitely liberate Crimea. We will return this part of our country not only to the all-Ukrainian space, but also to the all-European space.” 

His comments came in light of several months of sweeping Ukrainian counter-offensives in the east, and as their Armed Forces began encircling Kherson in the south. 

Putin’s annexations, both of Crimea in 2014 but more particularly in September this year of four Ukrainian oblasts, namely Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, were intended to discourage Ukrainian attacks. 

If the territories were at least de facto declared Russian, Putin’s purview, in his opinion, would justifiably extend to nuclear retaliation if Ukraine attacked the regions. 

But the Ukrainian Armed Forces and President Zelensky showed no interest in even acknowledging the Russian leader’s logic. 

Within days of the annexations, Ukrainian soldiers had recaptured the city of Lyman, in the eastern industrial heartland of the Donetsk region, forcing Russia to retreat from a region it had just claimed legal rights over. 

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Following its capture, Mr Zelensky pledged to fight deeper into Donbas in the east and liberate those trapped in the annexed regions. 

He said: “Over the past week, the number of Ukrainian flags in Donbas has increased. There will be even more in a week’s time.” 

As Ukraine prepares for battle for the strategic city of Kherson, having already encircled the area, an advance further south towards Crimea cannot be ruled out. 

In 2014, Russian officials claimed that 95.5 percent of voters in Crimea backed joining Russia, though the results were condemned for being fraudulent. 

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