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Time is running out for the Yes group to turn around its faltering campaign to enshrine a Voice to parliament in the Constitution.

It may already be too late.

If the government is not yet asking itself hard questions about an exit plan, it needs to start planning an escape route now.

Voice supporters gather for the Come Together for Yes campaign in Sydney’s Prince Alfred Park.Credit: Steven Siewert

The latest Resolve Political Monitor confirms a months-long downward trend in public support for the proposal.

From a high of 64 per cent public support in September last year, the trend has been all one way, sinking to 48 per cent support in this latest survey. For the first time, this survey shows more people expect the referendum will be defeated than think it will succeed. For the first time, four states would vote No if the national vote were held tomorrow.

Remember, a successful referendum requires at least four states to vote Yes and an outright majority of the national vote. This constitutional reform appears to have neither.

Yes, polls are a snapshot of a moment in time and, yes, there is still time to turn it around.

The question is how? The No campaign’s argument could not be simpler: if you don’t know, vote no.

What is Yes’s proposition? Is this about giving Indigenous Australians a say in the decisions that affect them? Is it about constitutional recognition? Is it about doing the right thing by our First peoples?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s formulation about the Voice being a modest proposal and an opportunity to listen to Indigenous Australians is no longer cutting through.

It’s not all on Albanese. The public Yes campaign has only recently begun to ramp up its efforts after a cautious start. The working group has been phenomenally dedicated to getting this right, but the forces backing Yes have been way too slow out the blocks, compared with those promoting a vote for No.

The Voice proposal has been around a decade or more. Umpteen reports have been prepared, parliamentary hearings held, models proposed.

But it is Albanese who has taken the risk and committed to a referendum – and ultimately it is on this prime minister to save the Voice, or to pull it if it is destined to fail.

To save itself, the Yes campaign must pull out all the stops. Releasing draft legislation would be a good place to start, as it would deny the No camp the most crucial aspect of its campaign – the ability to trade on uncertainty.

Albanese and the Yes campaign need to stop shying away from having a fight over the detail and just have it.

By keeping the actual date of the referendum quiet, the prime minister has bought a little wriggle room if he wants to delay a couple of months. The latest poll also shows that there are growing number of undecided voters (up from 17 per cent to 22 per cent), so there are votes in play.

Before the last election, Albanese was fond of saying Labor would “kick with the wind in the final quarter” and win the federal election.

But what chance does the Yes campaign have of winning if it finds itself 10 goals down at three-quarter time?

If the downward trend in Voice support can’t be reversed in the next couple of months, the referendum should be pulled – because defeat would be devastating.

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