AI ‘predicts World Cup winner’ after running more than 100,000 simulated matches

Posted on : November 22, 2022
AI ‘predicts World Cup winner’ after running more than 100,000 simulated matches
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    Move over, psychic octopuses.

    Boffins at the Alan Turing Institute have created a sophisticated AI model capable of predicting the outcome of the FIFA World Cup this year—and the results aren't promising.

    The AI model, nicknamed 'AIrsenal', was trained on international fixture results from every year since the 2002 World cup onwards.

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    After running through the 2022 World Cup's list of fixtures more than 100,000 times, the AI came up with a series of predictions that could be devastating to British football fans if true.

    According to the AI, Brazil has the biggest chance of winning (25%) with Belgium and Argentina close behind.

    Meanwhile, France has clinched the fourth spot as most likely to clinch the cup.

    Behind them is England, with only a 7% chance of winning the tournament and under 60% chance of reaching the quarter finals or further.

    If it's any consolation, Wales only have a 0.5% chance of winning the tournament, and a 50% chance of getting past the group stage.

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    The authors of the study, led by Dr Nick Barlow, warned against making bets based on the study. They said: "We certainly wouldn't recommend betting on any of our predictions!"

    Calling the research a 'fun side project', they added: "Ultimately, no matter how good your model, football is quite a random game.

    "This is one reason why we love it, and it's also why fans of England and Wales can continue to dream that their team will defy the odds."

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    • World Cup
    • Gareth Southgate
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