The median home sales price in 2021 jumped 16.9% over the 2020 price to 346,900 – the highest increase since 1999, according to the National Association of Realtors. But with mortgage interest rates climbing, the organization’s chief economist anticipates home sales will slow in 2022.
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But the slowdown might already have landed on the doorstep in some cities, according to a new study from GOBankingRates.
Using data from sources that include the U.S. Census Bureau, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2020 American Community Survey and RealtyTrac, GOBankingRates identified the 40 cities most at risk for experiencing a widespread housing crisis. The study examined factors such as mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and homeowner and rental vacancy rates.
All 40 are among the 200 largest cities in the country, but they aren’t spread out equally across the nation. They are concentrated in 18 states, with only one state in the West.
Read on to learn which cities could be poised to experience a housing crisis.
Jacksonville, Florida
Total housing units: 348,809
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 46.56%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.0%
Aurora, Illinois
Total housing units: 65,128
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 77.65%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
El Paso, Texas
Total housing units: 230,905
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.1%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 19.48%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
Anchorage, Alaska
Total housing units: 106,970
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.4%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 83.33%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
Akron, Ohio
Total housing units: 85,170
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 44.13%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%
Killeen, Texas
Total housing units: 54,840
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 11.90%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.9%
Charleston, South Carolina
Total housing units: 57,226
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 44.21%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
Little Rock, Arkansas
Total housing units: 83,525
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 10.34%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.4%
Wilmington, North Carolina
Total housing units: 53,830
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.5%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 84.56%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1 %
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Total housing units: 163,368
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 29.81%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.0%
Evansville, Indiana
Total housing units: 51,706
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 28.01%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%
Miami, Florida
Total housing units: 180,676
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 69.72%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.2%
Gainesville, Florida
Total housing units: 51,180
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 21.28%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.6%
Rochester, New York
Total housing units: 88,006
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.8%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.5%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 78.72%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
Baltimore, Maryland
Total housing units: 242,499
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 28.70%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.1%
New York, New York
Total housing units: 3,191,691
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 70.88%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Total housing units: 85,091
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.3%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 19.54%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
Cleveland, Ohio
Total housing units: 174,920
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 65.05%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%
Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Total housing units: 74,968
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.7%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 52.97%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 4.1%
Orlando, Florida
Total housing units: 113,238
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.5%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 48.31%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 5.0%
Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Total housing units: 96,611
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.3%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 36.90%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%
Houston, Texas
Total housing units: 874,827
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 73.98%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%
Yonkers, New York
Total housing units: 75,864
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 86.75%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%
Mobile, Alabama
Total housing units: 78,089
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.4%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 24.03%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Total housing units: 613,125
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 59.27%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
Greensboro, North Carolina
Total housing units: 118,126
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.3%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.6%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 49.12%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
Augusta, Georgia
Total housing units: 70,891
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.1%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 23.81%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.1%
Macon, Georgia
Total housing units: 58,154
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.1%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 19.96%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.7%
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Total housing units: 140,496
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 64.68%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
Fayetteville, North Carolina
Total housing units: 82,242
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 21.67%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.7 %
Newark, New Jersey
Total housing units: 102,195
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.6%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 74.96%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.8%
Rockford, Illinois
Total housing units: 62,011
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.2%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 58.26%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
Springfield, Massachusetts
Total housing units: 56,804
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 79.75%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.0%
Montgomery, Alabama
Total housing units: 79,331
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.2%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 33.68%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%
Toledo, Ohio
Total housing units: 119,215
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 93.16%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%
Dayton, Ohio
Total housing units: 58,748
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.9%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 70.02%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.6 %
Lafayette, Louisiana
Total housing units: 50,252
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.4%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.8%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 23.77%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.4%
Shreveport, Louisiana
Total housing units: 75,680
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.4%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 7.48%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%
Syracuse, New York
Total housing units: 56,384
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.0%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 58.07%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 3.2%
Laredo, Texas
Total housing units: 72,328
% of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%
% of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%
% of homes for sale that are/have been foreclosures: 49.07%
Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.1%
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Methodology: To find the 40 cities that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at the largest 200 cities in terms of total housing units across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2020 American Community Survey; and (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2020 American Community Survey. These four factors were then scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x and factor (4) was weighted 0.5x. The 100 cities most poised for a housing crisis were moved onto the next round of scoring. These 100 cities were then re-ranked and scored on the four factors above as well as (5) foreclosure rate as sourced from RealtyTrac. These five factors were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. For this second round of scoring, factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, factor (4) was weighted 0.5x, and factor (5) was weighted 1.5x. All data was collected on and up to date as of May 23, 2022.
This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis
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