Nicola Sturgeon suffers another hammer blow amid gender law meltdown as poll shows 54% of Scots oppose independence… and SNP backing is way short of 50% threshold she has set for making election a ‘de facto referendum’
- Poll shows support for independence has dipped to 46% excluding don’t knows
- Some 54% of Scots would oppose Nicola Sturgeon’s drive to split up the UK
- SNP well short of 50% threshold set for making election ‘de facto’ referendum
Nicola Sturgeon suffered a hammer blow today as a poll showed support for Scottish independence dropping.
Backing for the First Minister’s separatist drive was down to 46 per cent in the latest research by Survation – with 54 per cent wanting to stay in the UK.
Meanwhile, the SNP was well below the 50 per cent threshold Ms Sturgeon has set for turning the next general election into a ‘de facto referendum’ on breaking up the union.
The stark figures in the survey for True North – carried out last week – will heighten nerves among Ms Sturgeon’s acolytes that her campaign is faltering.
She has been accused of ‘confecting’ another row with the UK government by pushing through a controversial gender identity law, which has now been blocked by ministers to avoid conflicting with country-wide legislation.
Backing for the First Minister’s separatist drive was down to 46 per cent in the latest research by Survation – with 54 per cent wanting to stay in the UK
Support for independence had spiked in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling that Ms Sturgeon cannot hold a referendum without permission from Westminster.
But polling guru Sir John Curtice said it was now clear the bump had been ‘temporary’.
‘Following on from polling conducted shortly before Christmas that pointed in the same direction, the poll suggests that the spike in support for independence registered after the Supreme Court judgement on indyref2 has proven to be temporary,’ he said.
‘At 46 per cent, support for Yes in today’s poll is little different from the 47 per cent figure Survation obtained when they previously addressed the issue last August.
‘Meanwhile, the poll suggests that, at 43 per cent, support for the SNP would be well below the 50 per cent mark that Nicola Sturgeon would like to surpass at the next general election – though it also suggests that, at present, fewer than half would vote for pro-independence parties in a Holyrood ballot too.’
Sir John said for the SNP to have any chance of getting over 50 per cent support at an election it must ‘persuade more people of the case for independence’.
Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, said: ‘This is yet another poll which shows the people of Scotland value being part of the UK and want it to stay that way.
‘It doesn’t matter how much grievance the SNP tries to stir up, voters simply aren’t having it.’
Last week a veteran SNP MP warned that Ms Sturgeon’s ploy of making the next election a ‘de facto’ Scottish independence referendum is a ‘massive gamble’ that could kill of the nationalists’ ambitions.
Pete Wishart branded the tactic ‘the worst possible way to settle the constitutional future’ in an incendiary blog.
Meanwhile, the SNP was well below the 50 per cent threshold Ms Sturgeon has set for turning the next general election into a ‘de facto referendum’ on breaking up the union
But he highlighted the dilemma the separatists now face by admitting it was now the only option left open.
Ms Sturgeon has attempted to put a brave face on her political position since the Supreme Court ruling in October.
Rishi Sunak has made clear he will not sign off on another vote after both sides agreed the 2014 contest would settle the issue for a ‘generation’.
The First Minister is now proposing to fight the next general election on the single issue of independence, saying that if the SNP gets more than 50 per cent of the vote that would constitute a mandate to break up the UK.
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