POLICE must confirm whether Nicola Bulley's dog can swim to unlock the riddle of her disappearance, Britain's top dog expert says.
If springer spaniel Willow can, it would mean in "nine out of ten instances" the animal would have jumped in if Nicola fell into the River Wyre.
But as the dog was found dry by a passer-by, it leaves the question open whether the 45-year-old went in the water at all, former cop Colin Tennant says.
Colin – a dog behaviourist of 40 years – told The Sun Online: "The question for the owners is: 'is your dog water trained or not?'
"If this dog had been taught to swim, it would have dived in the water.
"Not to rescue her, it would have jumped in with no hesitation and therefore it would have been wet."
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But Colin, who worked with Cheshire Police for five years, stressed that if it turns out Willow cannot swim – "we are back to square one".
This is because it would not offer any clues as to whether the mum-of-two fell into the Lancashire river or not.
Discussing the reaction of a dog that cannot swim, he explained: "If the woman had gone in the water, the dog would have run up and down the bank.
"And if the woman cried out, it would follow the sound but not see her, it would be perplexed.
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"After that, the dog would just panic and run up and down – inhaling all the scent of its owner in that field.
"Then it would run back further and further until the woman said she found it."
Willow was discovered by a walker near a bench where her lead and Nicola's phone were found around an hour after Nicola was last seen near St Michael's on Wyre at around 9.15am on January 27.
CCTV BLACKSPOT
Cops are now focusing search efforts on the track from the fields, where she was last seen, to Garstang Road in St Michaels on Wyre, which may hold vital clues.
It is a CCTV blackspot around the field and they are appealing to drivers and cyclists who may have dashcam footage.
Police are confident, after reviewing CCTV, that Nicola, from nearby Inskip, did not leave the field near the river via Rowanwater.
This is the case for leaving either through the site itself or the piece of land at the side.
And she did not return from the fields along Allotment Lane or via the path at the rear of the Grapes pub onto Garstang Road.
Colin said that while his analysis is purely speculation, the blackspot path revelation offered a potentially interesting lead.
He explained that if it transpires the dog was unable to get out of the field to follow Nicola – if indeed she left the area via this route – it would have run back and forth along scent lines.
'AGITATED' DOG
This, he speculated, may suggest why a walker discovered Willow "agitated".
The canine expert says the spaniel was more likely "perplexed" if it was unable to find Nicola.
This is the exact same reaction the dog would have if unable to swim and therefore go after Nicola into the river, instead charging up and down the river bank.
Colin explained: "Who defines what agitated is? It may be a little bit bewildered.
"Dog's cannot process what they saw like we can, they stand 10inches above the ground.
"Whatever the dog saw last, the dog will migrate back to that spot."
He added the scent of the mum would be found all over the field, stretching back all the way to their home, leaving the dog to run up and down the scent lines.
Lancashire Constabulary are still working on the hypothesis Nicola "sadly fell" into the river.
Nicola and partner Paul Ansell would take it in turns to take Willow for a walk after dropping their kids, nine and six, off at the local primary school.
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They would walk the same towpath along the banks of the River Wyre each day.
The Sun Online have approached Lancashire Constabulary for comment on whether Willow the dog can swim.
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